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Now that we have had a few weeks after the first Republican debate, here is a look at where I think the GOP primary stands right now. The plan is to do this after each debate, depending on whether I think there has been any movement.

Quick disclaimers:

- I've already, personally, declared myself all-in for one of the candidates.

- I will support whoever is the nominee against Joe Biden. Or Kamala Harris. Or Gavin Newsom.

- My view of polls is that they should all be taken with a grain of salt. There are too many of them, and they are rapidly turning into clickbait both for the pollster and the candidates. For example: how many people on X are calling the new CNN poll "fake news" since it has one GOPer dominant over Joe Biden, and it's not who conservatives expect?

That out of the way...

1. Donald Trump

Set aside that he's the former president and gets all the earned media. I read someone describe Trump's current popularity as people rallying around the "anti-hero. That's the perfect way to describe his appeal. Even Trump agnostics -- really anyone who doesn't make bank identifying as anti-Trump -- agrees he is the target of a vicious political witch hunt. That rallies the troops to support the man because no one wants to see the people responsible for the witch hunt win.

There is nothing that can happen between now and the Iowa Caucus that is going to shake Trump's dominant lead over the other candidates, and even then it would only change if he loses Iowa. If he wins, good game everyone. Now let's take down Biden or whoever replaces Biden.

2. Ron DeSantis

DeSantis has been off the trail dealing with the Hurricane Idalia response. While that has happened, Joe Biden and the media have been trying to make SCHMOVID and mask mandates happen again. DeSantis rose to popularity amongst conservatives as one of the first governors to take a stand against the lockdowns, and he WAS the one who took on the most attacks by Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself). He now has the chance to remind voters why they fell for him in the first place, which is good because he NEEDS to win Iowa.

Also, if his SuperPAC would stop bragging about themselves to the press and would shut the f*ck up in general, that would be nice.

3. Nikki Haley

In my preview of the first debate, I had Tim Scott in the dark horse spot because if he pulled off the upset and won Iowa, the senator would move on to South Carolina where he is from. After the debate, that spot is clearly former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley's. I would caution my fellow very online conservative colleagues who aren't enamored by Haley that, as much as we want it to be otherwise, we DON'T have the final say in who our nominee is. Whether you call them RINO, moderate, establishment, or even just Republican, there are still a lot of them and they still vote.

And in the past week, they have seen Haley tied for second in New Hampshire, and the strongest candidate against Joe Biden. I may not have faith in the polls, but people who are looking to rally around a Trump alternative may not agree.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek has become very popular among the conservative base, and that has been shown in various nationwide polls. He's been great when it has come to messaging, reaching out to constituents the GOP tends to ignore, and smacking around corporate journalismers. My thing with Vivek is that I don't see any path for him that has him getting the nomination. That's the only thing that matters.

A lot of his current popularity comes from Trump supporters because he affirms Trump and calls Donald Trump, whom he's running against, the greatest president of the 21st century. Let's say Vivek pulls off the upset and wins Iowa. All of that MAGA support ends the very next day.

Chris Christie

Chris Christie is here because I thought five would be a nice round number. He's nothing but a spoiler. The primary is a race between Trump and Not Trump. Chris got into the race because he thought he may have a shot in New Hampshire, and to go after Trump at the debates. He can't do that if Trump doesn't show up at the debates. The only thing left for him to do is play spoiler for the other candidates.

The "Not Trump" contest, as of this very moment, is between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. What if he cut a deal with one to take out the other either on the debate stage or on his many cable news appearances? If you think that sounds far-fetched, ask President Marco Rubio about it.

This is where I think we're at. I encourage everyone to fight it out in either the responses on X or the comment section on Facebook.

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Brodigan is Grand Poobah of this here website and when he isn't writing words about things enjoys day drinking, pro-wrestling, and country music. You can find him on the Twitter too.

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