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May 28, 2019
Experts Predict a Donald Trump Reelection, Says...Former Obama Official
The odds of Donald Trump's reelection depend on who you talk to. The polls say "LOLWUT?" The economy says something completely different (see CNN Ditches ‘Trump Jobs Tracker’ After Economy Booms and Deregulations Allow Economy to Boom Under ‘Trump Effect’ Economics…). If you have #RESIST written on your forehead, you may not want to read this OpEd from a former Obama official. Three different models point to Trump's reelection. Yes, THREE models.
Steven Rattner, who served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration and worked on the auto industry bailouts, explained in his piece that three separate projection models currently point to a win for Trump.
One model by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, projects Trump's 2020 vote share as high as 56 percent given the economic boom, but that does not account for voters' issues with the president's personality.
"Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College," Rattner wrote.
The rub is the models are all based on the economy. Looking at his actual results, Trump should be an easy reelect in 2020. If US elections were based just on results, that would be super. But personality also affects who people vote for. Yes, a lot of Trump's low poll numbers are an average of a barrage of unfair media coverage. But if we're being honest, you can't deny some of Trump's problems are self-inflicted. Like, say, praising a dictator because he called a Democrat dumb.
The 2020 race is essentially between President Trump and Donald Trump. President Trump has been successful in a number of areas. Especially when it comes to the economy. Donald Trump needs to have his phone taken away so that he stops distracting from President Trump's successes.
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