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Donald TrumpOctober 11, 2024
New York is not in play, BUT Donald Trump playing The Garden in NYC is awesome for other reasons
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The Trump campaign announced this week that Donald Trump would be performing at the mecca, Madison Square Garden, on October 27th in the heart of New York City. Yeah, I know it's just called "The Garden" now, but I'm an oldhead and it will always be MSG for me. There are people who think it's a waste of time because it's in New York, and there are people who think this means "NY is in play." They're both wrong, though the people who think it's a waste of time are much wronger in their wrongness.
There are two reasons why the state isn't and never will be in play: Manhattan and Brooklyn. As long as there are millions and millions of low-information urbanites living on top of each other that Democrats manipulate into voting against their self-interests using social issues (and are dependent on said Democrats via public employment), the state will always go blue in the presidential. These are people who legit think voting for any Republican will take their abortions away when it's more likely that NY Democrats legalize abortion until the seventh trimester than someone from the city losing a single abortion "right."
However, if you remove those two counties, New York is the most purple state in the country. Many other factors make Trump's performance at The Garden an important move. Least of all, not unlike Trump doing Coachella this weekend, it's a flex because while the Harris Campaign is behaving like they know they're losing, the Trump campaign is acting like they know they're doing so much winning.
The state isn't in play, and NYC is a lost cause. What isn't a lost cause are the suburbs east and north of The Garden. Congressional wins on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley are why Republicans held on to Congress in 2022. Seeing what progressive control has done in NYC has driven voters in those areas to vote out anyone who supports those same policies on a local level, too. Trump rallying The Garden helps drive turnout in those areas.
It also drives turnout to vote against Proposition One, a statewide ballot initiative known as the "Parent Replacement Act." Democrats call it the "Equal Rights Amendment" in the same way they call a Marxist environmental bill the "Inflation Reduction Act." To hide what's actually in it.
... it’ll lead to kids possibly being able to get serious medical procedures without their parents’ OK and allow transgender females to compete in women’s sports.
“Proposition One would strip the legal rights of parents with school age children to know about crucially important things happening with their kids, including controversial gender transformation procedures” the Coalition to Protect Kids said in a statement.
“Schools would be required to permit biological males to compete on girls’ sports teams if voters approve this amendment.”
The last reason rallying The Garden matters is for the popular vote and to remove that talking point from Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) about Republicans losing it. Democrats win the popular vote because of New York and California. There are models that show Republicans can win the 48 other states yet still lose the popular vote because of those two states.
Of course, I can't find the clip now (Google is useless), but either Harry Enten or Steve Kornacki commented recently on how shockingly well Donald Trump has been polling in deep blue areas. Enough to flip the state, no. Enough to close the two-point gap from when he won the White House in 2016? Or the four-point gap against Biden in 2020? It would be a "no" if the Trump Campaign never tried. Playing The Garden next week and performing at Coachella this weekend shows the campaign is going for it.
We here at the Louder with Crowder Dot Com website maintain our stance about tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. As far as we're concerned, Trump remains two points down in the polls and will remain there until November 5th. Everyone reading this should be spending the next twenty-ish days behaving (and fighting) accordingly.
If I were to allow myself to process good news, Trump holding a rally at The Garden would be something I would process as such.
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Brodigan is Grand Poobah of this here website and when he isn't writing words about things enjoys day drinking, pro-wrestling, and country music. You can find him on the Twitter too.
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