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Despite his recent absence, James Talarico continues to surge in the polls. Has Texas finally turned blue? Today’s show breaks it down.

“Now he is not so much giving hard-hitting interviews, because he still very clearly avoids the tough questions; he is doing the PR tour. This is a strategy because they see the writing on the wall, and those on the left know this race is a lot tighter than they want you to believe,” Crowder said.

Right now, Kalshi odds show him at a 64% chance of winning. A new poll drop also suggests what is going on here.

“Undecided will not determine this election. Paxton just needs enough of his voting base; Republicans and conservatives need to turn out. Even if he is not perfect, if you do not turn out, that is the only way Talarico wins,” Crowder said.

A Quantus Insights poll shows Talarico at 46.7% and Paxton at 47.2%. This is within the margin of error. The problem is that Talarico has 95% support from Democrats, while Paxton has 87% support among Republicans.

“If Paxton gets to the low 90s with his own party, that means he effectively wins. It is more than the entire undecided pool. What this comes down to is, do you want Talarico? If not, you have to cast your vote. The undecided can't save it for Paxton,” Crowder said.

Quantus Insights also ranked 14th nationally in the last election, with its final 2024 presidential poll putting Trump up 0.8 points. They have also underestimated Republicans less than other polling companies. They were also the second most accurate pollster in the Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred race.

“Not only are they generally more accurate, but they are also significantly more accurate in races like this where Democrats have been oversampled,” Crowder said. “It really comes down to you.”