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Polls say the Midterm Elections will produce a blue wave. Today’s show breaks down the history of the Midterms.

“The president's party, the incumbent party, tends to lose seats,” Crowder said.

According to YouGov, “In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points, trailing the 2.6-point margin of Republican House candidates.” However, “Democrats have led in 2026 midterm polling for over a year, but recent polls (including our own) have shown double-digit leads and fueled talk of a blue wave.”

Since 1934, Presidents have lost an average of 27 Seats in the House and 3.5 seats in the Senate per midterm. Now, Republicans are down 9-21 in the House and 2-6 in the Senate.

“That is right in line with the historical average, as far as the Senate, as far as the House, it is better than the incumbent has done historically,” Crowder said.

Additionally, only in three instances, since 1934, has the president's party gained seats in the House. In 1938, FDR lost 72 seats in the House and seven in the Senate. In 2010, Obama lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate. In 2014, he lost 13 in the House and nine in the Senate.

Again, the numbers are similar to what has happened historically.

“If you look at the historical outliers and the trends, this is right in line with what would have been historical trends, especially when you are looking at an economy that isn't ideal and is still recovering from pre-COVID job losses. It would be kind of a miracle if we saw anything other than some degree of losses. Right now, it looks like it will be significant as far as our legislature today, not really significant historically. If you want to call it a tidal wave or a tsunami, I would say that is a dishonest representation.”