Impeachment. Booed at ballgames. Acting all crazy pants on Twitter. All things that if you self-identified as a progressive, you could point to claiming Donald Trump is going to lose in 2020. If America was just Park Slope and San Francisco, there’s a good chance you’d be right. But as this new New York Times/Siena Poll reveals, Trump is exactly where he was in 2016. You know, the year he beat Crooked Hillary and became president.
Somewhere at a vegan cafe in Brooklyn, people are choking on their artisan pumpkin spiced lattes and crying about fake polls and the failing New York Times,
New Times/Siena polls show Trump highly competitive in the six closest states carried by the president in '16:
Biden+2, Biden 46 to Trump 45
Even, Sanders 45, Trump 45
Trump+2, Trump 46, Warren 44
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2019
Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error.
Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.
The poll showed Bernie Sanders deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters.
The crazier the candidate is, the worse they perform in the states they need to win (see Bernie Sanders Calls for Government to Pay College Tuition for Illegal Immigrants and Dear Elizabeth Warren: You’re a Fraud, a Phony and a Loser). Who could have guessed that a year-long appeal to Twitter users and not real people who actually matter would have an adverse effect on the Democrat candidate. Other than real people who actually matter.
The numbers are even worse for current frontrunner Elizabeth Warren. Imagine running against President Whitey McRacist and seeing numbers like this:
Warren runs especially poorly with nonwhite voters in battleground states, per NYT poll.
Clinton: +79 with black voters over Trump // Warren polling +68
Clinton +35 with Hispanic voters over Trump // Warren +24.https://t.co/hEOXNUALjP
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 4, 2019
It takes a special kind of failure to suck worse against Trump than Hillary Clinton.
The usual disclaimers apply. A poll is just a snapshot of where things are right now. Or at least over the few days that the poll was conducted. A lot can happen between now and the next two debates. Let alone, between now and Election Day of NEXT year. All it takes is one upset in Iowa, and the words we’re saying right now lose all relevancy. That’s politics for you.
But people have been half-jokingly/half-seriously saying that all the Democrats had to do was not be crazy. Which instead of being sound advice, the candidates took as a challenge. After at least a year of campaigning, if this is where the race is, it’s not a joke anymore.
Not a joke for progressives. We all think it’s hilarious.