Democrats have been counting on a big “blue wave” to wipe out Republicans this year, like Tess Holliday at a pie-eating contest, only sloppier. There has been some pushback (see CBS Pollster Casts Doubt on Democratic ‘Blue Wave’ in Midterm Elections and A Blue Wave? Here’s Why Nancy Pelosi Needs to Slow Her Roll [VIDEO]). But I think only the most hardcore MAGA-sexuals have come to grips with Republicans at least losing the House.
That was pre-Kavanaugh circus where Democrats tried lynching an innocent man. Now with the less than thirty days to go, the “blue wave” seems less a sure thing. (h/t Twitchy).
The Democrats have put a long list of Republican-leaning districts into play. But it's not clear whether they actually lead in a lot of them.
That means there's still a wide range of possible outcomes in the fight for control of the House https://t.co/4Eon15pI6g
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
— CBS News (@CBSNews) October 7, 2018
So what happens to the Dem field in 2020 if we wake up on Nov 7 (or whenever the heck CA finishes its count) and the Dems have a net gain of 20 in the House… and GOP maintains control of the Senate as well…
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2018
I think we all know what happens.
The change could just be natural tightening as we get closer to election day. Or it could be the unhinged left turning off swing voters in their barbaric treatment of Brett Kavanaugh. Democrats may have been counting on anti-Trump Republicans to vote blue as a means of sending a message. Instead, they’re getting anecdotal stories like this one:
From a conservative who has been disgusted by the Trumpified GOP: “I didn’t think I could drag myself to the polls. But after the Left’s performance in the Kavanaugh affair, I would crawl across broken glass.” I believe this sentiment is common.
— Jay Nordlinger (@jaynordlinger) October 7, 2018
As Ted Cruz discussed on Thursday, the Democrats have been angry, in the full swings of Trump derangement syndrome. The left is motivated to come out and vote in the midterms. The Republicans, heretofore, haven’t been as passionate. Making them less likely to turn out in the midterms. Kavanaugh may have tilted the scales.
What say you?